In my latest Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Progress Report I recommend that the Ontario government establish a price on carbon as soon as possible to hasten the transition to a low-carbon economy. This could be done directly through a carbon tax or indirectly through a cap-and-trade system.
Unfortunately, the government recently announced that it would delay implementing a cap-and-trade program beyond 2012 over concerns about negative impacts on the province’s industrial sector and carbon leakage. The fear that additional costs imposed on emissions-intensive industries by a carbon price will reduce domestic competitiveness and drive firms out of the province has become especially prominent in this period of economic uncertainty. But if a provincial cap-and-trade program ever gets off the ground regulators will most certainly protect domestic emissions-intensive industries over the short term by providing them with free allowances to reduce or eliminate compliance costs. Over time it is expected that free allowances would be gradually replaced by auctioned allowances as other jurisdictions move to put a price on carbon.
There are also those who contend that Ontario’s rising electricity costs will cause value-added manufacturing and resource industries to set up shop elsewhere. “All-in” electricity prices for the industrial end-user, which were estimated at 8.8¢/kWh in 2010 in the Ontario Long Term Energy Plan, are projected to increase to 9.6¢/kWh in 2012. This is more expensive than electricity prices in neighboring coal-intensive U.S. states like Michigan and Ohio, but almost identical to electricity prices in New York State. And, when one considers that Ontario’s corporate taxes and health care costs are lower than neighbouring U.S. jurisdictions, it becomes clear that the province will remain a competitive jurisdiction for manufacturing, particularly if a favourable regulatory environment for next-generation manufacturing industries (including renewable energy) is in place. I believe that a carbon price is a fundamental element of such a regulatory environment.
Thus, as the Ontario government moves forward with the design and implementation of a carbon pricing program I believe the fear that manufacturing industries will be driven to other jurisdictions should be tempered by the reality that additional costs will be minimized in the short term. Over the long term all jurisdictions will need to impose GHG controls if we are to have any hope of averting catastrophic climate change impacts. As an early adopter of carbon pricing, the Ontario government will help domestic industries be better prepared for the point in time at which a national or international climate change mitigation policy is agreed upon and the world’s atmosphere and ecosystems are no longer treated as free dumping grounds for global warming pollution.
